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Aké presné sú predpovede ekonómov? (How accurate are the economic forecasts?) - investujte s Indexfunds.sk

Aké presné sú predpovede ekonómov? (How accurate are the economic forecasts?)

ForecastsMnoho ľudí sa živí predpovedaním budúceho vývoja ekonomík, inflácie, indikátorov dôvery spotrebiteľov atď. Mnohí sa na tieto predpovede spoliehajú a mnohí investiční manažéri na základe nich investujú peniaze sporiteľov v podielových fondoch, alebo dávajú odporúčania svojim klientom.

Filadelfská pobočka americkej centrálnej banky FED vydáva raz kvartálne tzv. Prehľad predpovedí profesionálnych analytikov (Survey of Professional Forecasters), v ktorej sa FED pýta popredných analytikov na ich predpovede ďalšieho ekonomického vývoja na niekoľko nasledujúcich rokov. FED tento prehľad vydáva od roku 1990.

Tom Stark z filadelfského FEDu sa podujal zhondotiť úspešnosť týchto predpovedí. Vo svojej analýze prišiel k záveru, analytici dokážú relatívne dobre predpovedať vývoj ekonomiky na krátkych horizontoch. Avšak pri dlhodobých predpovediach sa ich úspešnosť dramaticky znižuje a je horšia ako hod mincou. Všetci investori by preto mali brať predpovede ekonómov rezervou. Najmä tie dlhodobé.

English summary: Many people earn their fortune by forecasting the future development of economies, inflation, various consumer confidence indices etc. Many people rely on these forecasts and a majority of money managers invest money of the savers based on such forecasts or give recommendations to their clients.

The Philadelphia FED publishes once every quarter the Survey of Professional Forecasters in which the FED polls experienced forecasters on their view of economic future. The survey provides forecasts of GDP, GDP price index, unemployment, inflation etc. FED has been conducting this survey since 1990.

Tom Stark from the Philly FED decided to evaluate the forecasts. In his analysis, he concludes that the economists are relatively good at forecasting at short term horizons. However, the forecasts dramatically deteriorate at longer term horizons. Investors tossing a coin would be better off than investors relying on long term forecasts. As a result, everybody should take economic forecasts with a grain of salt, epsecially the long term ones.

Via The Wall Street Journal.


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