Pasívne investovanie

Spoločnosť McKinsley zverejnila výskum zameraný na schopnosť akciových analitykov predpovedať rast ziskov spoločností v dlhodbom horizonte. Zistili, že za obdobie posledných 25 rokov boli predpovede analytikov optimistickejšie ako realita o 100%!!! Analytici predpovedali v priemere dlhodobý (5 ročné rolovacie obdobia) rast ziskov na 10% až 12% ročne. V skutočnosti tento dosiahol približne 6% p.a. Obzvlášť nepresní sú analytici v krízových časoch, kedy sa ich predpovede odchylujú od reality ešte viac. Investori a manažéri by sa preto nemali príliš spoliehať na predpovede analytikov.

English sumamry (taken from the original article): No executive would dispute that analysts’ earnings forecasts serve as an important benchmark of the current and future health of companies. To better understand their accuracy, we undertook research that produced sobering results when it comes to analysts’ abilities to predict future earnings growth.

Analysts have been persistently overoptimistic for the past 25 years, with estimates ranging from 10 to 12 percent a year, compared with actual earnings growth of 6 percent. Over this time frame, actual earnings growth surpassed forecasts in only two instances, both during the earnings recovery following a recession. On average, analysts’ forecasts have been almost 100 percent too high. When economic growth accelerates, the size of the forecast error declines; when economic growth slows, it increases.

Investrs or executives should therefore not rely too much on the forecasts of various analysts.

Via Harvard Business Review.