If we can predict economic variables such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, etc., it is probable that we could use it in investing and achieve thus abnormal returns. In fact, if we could predict the market movements, it would be a holy grail of investing. But what do the experts say about forecasting?
“We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.”
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