I have come across this interesting study from 2004 where psychology professors from the Stochholm university tested whether financial experts can beat lay people when predicting stock returns over the period of one month. (Not) surprisingly, financial experts fared worse than lay people (psychology students). They predicted 40% of the stock movements right which is worse than tossing a coin or relying on a chimpanzee. Psychology students were successful in ca 50% of the cases… If you want to read more, click here.
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