Prečo trhy krachujú (Why Markets Crash)

Market BubbleOdporúčam prečítať si článok na blogu Psy-Fi o predikovaní trhových krachov. V skratke sa v článku dozviete, že po bitke je každý generál, no rozpoznať, že sa blíži prasknutie bubliny pred tým, ako k tomu dôjde, je prakticky nemožné. Nedokázal to slávny ekonóm Irving Fisher v roku 1929, keď vyhlásil, že akciové trhy dosiahli niečo ako permanentne stabilnú úroveň.

A nedokázali to ani dlhopisové trhy pred vypuknutím prvej i druhej svetovej vojny. Do poslednej chvíle nevykazovali žiadne náznaky blížiaceho sa konfliktu. No po vypuknutí oboch vojen sa ceny štátnych dlhopisov zrútili (pozri tu a tu)…

English summary (taken from the original article):
Oddly there’s little agreement amongst the experts about why markets crash. Although given that experts in fields without objective measures of success are generally less accurate than a drunk in a ship’s urinal during a storm that’s not really surprising. Still, if the best that the world of investment has to offer doesn’t know when stuff’s overvalued then how can we possibly hope for an end to boom and bust?

Irving Fisher, who stated that “stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau” with the uncanny precision of the general whose last words were “don’t be stupid, they’ll never hit me from over th …” is largely remembered for that most infelicitous of predictions. Yet Fisher is one of the greatest economists of the twentieth century and a pioneer of behavioural finance.

If it was difficult, if not impossible, to foresee the Wall Street Crash what about something a bit more obvious? Like, say, the two World Wars? We all know the history, about how they were more or less inevitable. Only the data says differently.

Niall Ferguson’s analysis of government bond markets on the lead into the First World War suggests that either markets completely failed to predict the “obvious” slide into conflict or that the war itself was far from certain until the last possible moment. The subsequent devastation to bond prices makes it hard to believe that investors wouldn’t have reacted if they’d realised that war was inevitable…

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