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All Charts Lie - investujte s Indexfunds.sk

All Charts Lie

Technical AnalysisTechnická analýza sa používa ako jeden z nástrojov aktívneho investovania. Využíva minulé ceny napr. akcií na predpovedanie budúceho vývoja. Na svete je však toľko cenných papierov a toľko nástrojov technickej analýzy, že už len podľa zákonov štatistiky sa Vám podarí nájsť nejaký cenný papier vhodný na obchodovanie. Ide len o to, ako sa pohráte s nastaveniami indikátorov technickej analýzy. Akú dlhú periódu zvolíte pri výpočte kĺzavých priemerov?  Aký spôsob výpočtu zvolíte? Bežný aritmetický priemer, alebo exponenciálny? Aplikujete kĺzavé priemery na graf cenného papiera s reinvestovaním výnosov, alebo bez?

Na obrázkoch nižšie vidieť ako sa zmení vypovedacia schopnosť technickej analýzy, keď beriete do úvahy reinvestované kupónové platby pri dlhopisoch a keď ich do úvahy neberiete (na obrázku je ETF iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond). Technická analýza sa teda zdá byť veľmi otáznym nástrojom pri investovaní. Jej výsledok závisí od rôznych vstupných parametrov, ktoré musíte nastaviť. Môže sa veľmi ľahko stať, že dvaja ľudia prídu na základe technickej analýzy k diametrálne odlišným záverom napriek tomu, že analyzovali ten istý cenný papier. Investori by mali dobre zvážiť, či sa budú na techickú analýzu spoliehať. Viac sa dočítate tu.

Technical analysis when income is not considered

Technická analýza bez vyplácaných výnosov.

Technical Analysis when income is considered

Technická analýza so zarátaním vyplácaných výnosov.

Zdroj: Indexuniverse.com


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